Opinion polls – what’s the point?

I guess you know which opinion polls I’ve got in mind, unless you’ve been on Mars for the last few months.

How could the opinion polls have got the general election result so spectacularly wrong? There was a trend between all the pollsters so well-defined it was impossible that it was wrong. Even the most experienced of commentators started their interviews from the premise that no single party was ever going to win a majority. And yet, with the benefit of that very precious commodity hindsight we now all know that was completely wrong!

But do you think any pollsters will shut up shop as a result of the debacle. Yes, I doubt it too. We all want to know the future as early as we can and we’re prepared to do what we can to get into that privileged position.

To some extent, I would say that’s how it is in business too. We conduct focus-group activities to try and find out what consumers want. We want to know what fashions are going to be big next year or what type of biscuits our children are likely to be devouring in huge quantities next summer. As with politics, the rewards for getting it right are significant but this election has just given us a crystal clear example of why we shouldn’t put too much faith in our attempts to read the future.

Build it and they will come – words on the epitaph of many a failed business. It’s worth reminding ourselves that customers, in any business, have a habit of doing what they want. You may think you’ve just constructed a world-beating business model that’s bound to make you a millionaire but your future customers may have other ideas.

I’m not saying it’s a futile exercise to try and forecast the way in which your business will perform in the future – far from it. My point would be simply this – remember it is only a forecast and there is no substitute for getting close to the market. In other words, don’t rely on “polls” too heavily – have the equivalent of an election and find out what your customers actually want for real. Talk to them directly and ask them to “vote”. Find out for yourself what is really going on and don’t allow any kind of filter to come between you and your target audience.

Having said all that, there’s another angle in this that might be worth noting. Your soundings may be wrong and your consumers may reward you with unexpected business which you had given up on. Just as they may turn away unexpectedly there is also a very real possibility that your business proposition may be more interesting than even you imagined. So don’t give up on serendipity – we all need a bit of luck some time!